Demographic Prediction of Population Size and Composition in Iraq

Abstract

The significant increase in population growth rates is the largest in most developing countries, including Iraq, the increase is accompanied by a change in the characteristics of the population in terms of size, composition and distribution, this leads to a review of existing population policies, to be able to cope with the pressures that overpopulation poses on sustainable development efforts and future plans. Hence, there is always a need to make estimates of future population numbers and the changes that are likely to accompany the composition and distribution of the population at the level of different activities and areas of life. The methods of estimation differ from each other on the basis of each applied in completely different circumstances from the other, the reason for the difference is due to the level of accuracy of the data that are used as the basis for making these estimates and predictions indicate an increase or decrease in the number of future populations. This research deals with the use of some of the estimation methods that will be applied to the population in Iraq during a certain period of time, to estimate the numbers of the population in the future and these methods like (Exponential Modified, Logistics), the population numbers during this period (1989-2023) were obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics, and by using algorithms prepared by researchers for each method of estimation and During the extracted results, it is clear that the population forecasts of the population of Iraq will be increasing or decreasing in the future.