Heterogeneity of Iraqi Oil Effect on the Global and Local Interest in Wars and Pandemics Crises

Abstract

Iraq is considered one of the countries that depend mainly on oil production, so the revenues from these resources are assigned in various sectors and fields within the country is the biggest problem. The importance of this research comes from the importance of this sector in terms of production and profits (in wars and epidemics Crises) and its impact on the global oil market and the international economy, this paper examines the effect of changes in oil production and values on Iraq's economic growth to assess its reliance on the crude oil sector. as well as on the local Iraqi economy to shed light on both cases (Corona epidemic in 2020 and the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2022), By analyzing the time series of Iraqi oil (production and prices) separately, and prices and production lines for (Basra and Ceyhan separately and totally) for the extended period (from January-2019 to April-2022) and on a monthly basis using different statistical forecasting methods in terms of stability in production and prices as well as seasonality and forecasting oil prices in the next 2 years where (R) programming language with multi Packages and functions have been used to find best fitted for the selected Box Jenkins (ARIMA) model and studying the homogeneity or heterogeneity of Iraqi oil influence locally by (GDP) and globally on international oil prices, and what are the proposed solutions and decision making to reduce Risks (or losses) and maximize profits as much as and stability in the Iraqi oil policy compared to neighboring countries or the world.