The Impact of Demographic Variables in Iraq on Human Capital Indicators for the Period (2012-2021)

Abstract

The research aimed to study the development of demographic variables and study the development of human capital indicators in Iraq during the time period from (2012-2021), and design a mathematical model to link demographic variables and human capital indicators and analyze the impact of demographic variables on human capital to benefit from this model in guiding... The process of human, social and economic development in Iraq and the employment of human capital in the development process. The researcher adopted the descriptive analytical method to study the development of the study variables, and designed a model to study the relationship between (demographic) variables and human capital indicators in Iraq, using the autocorrelation coefficient and the multiple linear regression model. The analysis was done using the statistical program (SPSS - V26). The study reached the most important The following results: Demographic variables affect human capital indicators by (99.8%). There is a positive effect of the variable fertility rate and infant mortality rate and a negative effect of the variable of the crude birth rate and the mortality rate of children under five in the legal composite. The Human Development Index variables also affect the percentage of students graduating from university education (public and private universities) and the percentage of students enrolling in university education (government + National Bank) has a positive effect on the legal component, while the unemployment rate has a negative effect on the legal component. The percentage of (47.3%) of the variation occurring in the human capital variables is due to the change occurring in the demographic variables. The percentage of (74.8%) of the variation occurring In demographic variables, the reason is due to the change in human capital indicators. Through statistical analysis of the data, the alternative hypothesis (H1) was accepted, which indicates a statistically significant effect of demographic variables on human capital indicators in Iraq, and the null hypothesis was rejected.